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Care pathways evaluation
Systems change all the time. But deliberate change involves assessing opportunities for improvement as well as assessing impacts.
Modelling pathways in healthcare can be useful for identifying and anticipating the many potential end consequences. It is also important to account for variation in practice. By building bespoke models, we can indicate solutions that incorporate any expected variability both in patient demand and in patterns of supply e.g. by geography.
Related Case Studies
The aim of this evaluation was to provide the best estimates of the potential impact leveraging existing leisure services and community assets could have on health and health-related benefits considering the emerging Integrated Care Systems (ICS) strategy. HEC previously built and delivered a comprehensive model for the economic outcomes of sport ('MOVES') for Sport England and this model was adapted using the Office for National Statistics population data, data on physical inactivity as well as socioeconomic classification data.
On average, over 25% of the population is physically inactive and this varies by age, gender, social class, and ethnic background. Physical activity and community engagement are key drivers of population health, with variation in healthy behaviours accounting for approximately 45% of the variation in health outcomes. Leisure services play a vital role in enabling equality of access to activities, which promote rehabilitation and population health, and also act as a catalyst and convener for community engagement at a local level. Local Authorities are uniquely positioned to increase general and targeted participation levels, coordinate and leverage community assets, and participate in specific health initiatives such as social prescribing and (p)rehabilitation and exercise referral schemes.
We based our analysis on a hypothetical cohort of approximately 1 million individuals with an assumption that this population will comprise of physically inactive adults - 1% from the higher socioeconomic group, 2.5% from the middle socioeconomic group and 5% from the lower socioeconomic group. Physical activity was taken as a proxy for general participation in leisure services, but we also recognise there are many others benefits.